Prof. Dr. Makram El-Shagi

Research Interests


Monetary macroeconomics, esp. monetary policy

International macroeconomics, esp. regulation of financial markets

Econometrics, esp. computational econometrics and time series econometrics


Current Positions

Since July 2017 Director of the CFDS
Since September 2015 Full Professor of Economics at Henan University, Kaifeng

Since October 2014

Research Affiliate at the Center for Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, University of Wisconsin Riverfalls, US
Since August 2014 Research Professor at the Halle Institute for Economic Research, Germany




Habilitation (postdoctoral qualification qualifying for full professorship)
University of Mannheim, Department of Law and Economics, May 2008

Dr. rer. pol (equivalent to PhD)
University of Mannheim, Department of Economics, December 2003

Diplom-Volkswirt (equivalent to MSc)
University of Trier, January 2001


Research Network

Recent external collaboration on country level. Dive into details by clicking on the dots.



  1. El-Shagi, M.; Jiang, L.: Monetary policy transmission in China: Dual shocks with dual bond markets, in: Macroeconomic Dynamics (forthcoming).
    [Available as: CFDS Discission Paper 2017/02, 2017]
  2. El-Shagi, M./ Yamarik, S.: IMF Conditionality and Capital Controls: Capital Account Liberalization to Capital Inflow Management?, Review of International Economics (forthcoming)
    [Available as: CFDS Discission Paper 2018/06, 2018]

  3. El-Shagi, M. / von Schweinitz, G.: Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD, Journal of International Money and Finance (forthcoming)
    [Available as: CFDS Discussion Paper 2019/05, 2019]

  4. El-Shagi, M. / Zheng, Y.: Money Demand in China - A Meta Study, Emerging Markets, Finance and Trade (forthcoming)

  5. El-Shagi, M.: When Does Monetary Measurement Matter (Most)?, Macroeconomic Dynamics (forthcoming)

  6. El-Shagi, M.; Zhang, L.: Trade Effects of Silver Price Fluctuations in 19th-Century China: A Macro Approach, in: China Economic Review, Vol. 63, October 2020.
    [Available as: CFDS Discission Paper 2017/05, 2017]

  7. Benchimol, J. / El-Shagi, M.: Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism, Economic Modelling, Vol. 91, pp. 386-402, September 2020.

  8. El-Shagi, M. / Yamarik, S.: State-Level Capital and Investment: Re finements and Update, Growth and Change, A Journal of Urban and Regional Policy, Vol. 50 (4), pp. 1411-1422, December 2019

  9. El-Shagi, M.; Kelly, L. J.: What can we learn from country level liquidity in the EMU?,  Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 42, pp. 75-83, June 2019

  10. El-Shagi, M.: Rationality tests in the presence of instabilities in finite samples, Economic Modelling, Vol. 79, pp. 242-246, June 2019

  11. El-Shagi, M.: A Simple Estimator for Smooth Local Projections, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 26 (10), pp. 830-834, 2019

  12. El-Shagi, M.; Shao M.: The Impact of Inequality and Redistribution on Growth, Review of Income and WealthVol. 65 (2), pp. 239-263, 2019

  13. El-Shagi, M.; von Schweinitz, G.: The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 97, December 2018, pp. 198-218

  14. El-Shagi, M.; Michelsen, C.; Rosenschon S.: Empirics on the Long-run Effects of Building Energy Codes in the Housing Market, Land Economics, Vol. 93 (4), November 2017, pp. 585-607

  15. El-Shagi, M.: Dealing with Small Sample Bias in Post-Crisis Samples, Economic Modelling, Vol. 65, September 2017, pp. 1-8

  16. El-Shagi, M; Kelly, L.J.: For They Know Not What They Do - Monetary Policy During the Great Moderation, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 24 (10) (2017), pp. 717-721.

  17. Yamarik, S.; El-Shagi, M.: Yamashiro, G.: Does inequality lead to credit growth? Testing the Rajan hypothesis using state-level data, in: Economics Letters, Vol. 148 (November 2016), pp. 63-67

  18. El-Shagi, M.; von Schweinitz, G.: The Qual VAR Revisited - Good Forecast, Bad Story, Journal of Applied Economics, Vol 19 (2016), 2, pp. 293-322 [Available as: IWH Discussion Papers 12/2012, 2012].

  19. El-Shagi, M.; Lindner, A.; von Schweinitz, G.: Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the EMU – A Counterfactual Analysis, Review of International Economics, Vol. 24 (1) (February 2016), pp. 37-66. [Available as: IWH Discussion Papers 6/2014, 2014].

  20. El-Shagi, M.; Giesen, S.; Jung, A.: Revisiting the relative forecast performances of Fed staff and private forecasters: A dynamic approach, in: International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 32 (2) (April to June 2016), pp. 313-323. [Available as IWH Discussion Papers, 5/2012, 2012].
  21. El-Shagi, M.; von Schweinitz, G.: The Diablo 3 Economy: An Agent Based Approach, Computational Economics, Vol. 47 (2016), 2, pp. 193 – 216.

  22. El-Shagi, M.; Jung, A.: Have Minutes Helped Markets to Predict the MPC’s Monetary Policy Decisions?, European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 39, (September 2015), pp. 222 – 234. [Availabe as ECB Working Paper 1808, 2015].

  23. El-Shagi, M.; Jung, A.:  Does the Greenspan Era Provide Evidence on Leadership in the FOMC?, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 44 (March 2015), pp. 173 – 190. [Previous version available as ECB Working Paper 1579, 2013].

  24. El-Shagi, M.; von Schweinitz, G.: Risk and Return - Is there an unholy cycle of ratings and yields?, Economics Letters, Vol. 129 (April 2015), pp. 49 - 51.

  25. El-Shagi, M.; Giesen, S.: Kelly, L.J.: The Quantity Theory Revisited - A New Structural Approach, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 19 (2015), 1, pp. 58 - 78. [Previous version available as IWH Discussion Papers, 7/2011, 2011]

  26. El-Shagi, M.; Giesen, S.: A Note on the Hidden Risk of Inflation, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Vol. 17 (2014), 1, pp. 91 - 97. [Available online: Taylor and Francis online].

  27. El-Shagi, M.; Kelly, L.J.: Liquidity in the Liquidity Crisis: Evidence from Divisia Monetary Aggregates in Germany and the European Crisis Countries, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 34 (2014), 1, pp. 63 - 72. [Available online: Economics Bulletin].

  28. El-Shagi, M.; Giesen, S.: Money and Inflation - Consequences of Recent Monetary Policy, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 35 (2013), 4, pp. 520 - 537 [Previous version available as IWH Discussion Papers, 2/2010, 2010].

  29. El-Shagi, M.; Knedlik, T.; von Schweinitz, G.: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 35 (2013), pp. 76 - 103. [Previous verison available as IWH Discussion Papers, 3/2012, 2012].

  30. El-Shagi, M.; Giesen, S.: Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase, Computational Economics, Vol. 41 (2013), 1, pp. 101 - 123. [Previous version available as IWH Discussion Papers, 19,2010, 2010].

  31. El-Shagi, M: Initial Evidence from a New Database on Capital Market Restrictions, PanOeconomicus, 2012, 3, pp. 283 / 292.

  32. El-Shagi, M.: Protect and Survive? Did Capital Controls Help Shield Emerging Markets from the Crisis?, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 32 (2012), 1, pp. 1 - 6. [Available online: Economics Bulletin].

  33. El-Shagi, M.: The Distorting Effect of Capital Controls, German Economic Review, Vol. 13 (2012), 1, pp. 41 / 55. [Available online: Wiley Online Library].

  34. El-Shagi, M.: An Evolutionary Algorithm for the Estimation of Threshold Vector Error Correction Models, International Economics and Economic Policy, Vol. 8 (2011), 4, pp. 341 - 362. [Available online: Springer Link: previous version available as IWH Discussion Papers, 1/2010, 2010].

  35. El-Shagi, M.: Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 22 (2011), 3, pp. 298 - 319. [Available online: Science Direct; previous version available as IWH Discussion Papers, 16/2009, 2009].

  36. El-Shagi, M.: The Impact of Fixed Exhange Rates on Fiscal Discipline, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 58 (2011), 5, pp. 685 - 710. [Available online: Wiley Online Library].

  37. El-Shagi, M; Ilgmann, C.: Die Bedeutung der Besitzverflechtung von Kapitalgesellschaften für die Finanzkrise, ORDO, Vol. 61 (2010), pp. 299 - 323.

  38. El-Shagi, M.: Did the Crisis Affect Potential Output, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 18 (2011), 8, pp. 735 - 738. [Available online: Taylor and Francis Online].

  39. El-Shagi, M.: The role of rating agencies in financial crises - Case studies from the Asian Flu, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 34 (2010), 4, pp. 671 - 685. [Availabel online Cambridge Journal of Economics Advance Access].

  40. El-Shagi, M.: Capital Controls and International Interest Rate Differentials, Applied Economics, Vol. 42 (2010), 6, pp. 681 - 688. [Available online Taylor and Francis Online].

  41. El-Shagi, M.: Die Einführung von Kapitalverkehrskontrollen mit Korruptionsabsichten, List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik, Vol 33 (2007), 4, pp. 330 - 356.

  42. El-Shagi, M.: Korruption, Institutionen und Einkommensniveau, Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Vol. 58 (2007), 3, pp. 227 - 249.

  43. El-Shagi, M.: Property networks of corporations as cause of abusive behavior - A stock market analysis based on institutional economics, Applied Financial Economics Letters, Vol 1 (2005), 5, pp. 279 - 283.

  44. El-Shagi, M.: Base Architecture for Preference Based Agents, Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Tuscon, Arizona 2001.

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