Kim, Jong-Min / Jung, Hojin
We propose a method for improving the predictive ability of standard forecasting models used in financial economics. Our approach is based on the functional partial least squares (FPLS) model, which is capable of avoiding multicollinearity in regression by efficiently extracting information from the high-dimensional market data. By using its well-known ability, we can incorporate auxiliary variables that improve the predictive accuracy. We provide an empirical application of our proposed methodology in terms of its ability to predict the conditional average log return and the volatility of crude oil prices via exponential smoothing, Bayesian stochastic volatility, and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) models, respectively.
Kim, J. / Jung, H: Time series forecasting using functional partial least square regression with stochastic volatility, GARCH, and exponential smoothing, in: Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming)