Mahbuba Aktar / Makram El-Shagi / Florian Gerth
CFDS Discussion Paper 2026/4
Abstract
Financial frictions are a key determinant of monetary policy transmission. Using provincial Chinese data for 2011–2019, we examine this question through the lens of regional variation in traditional and digital financial inclusion. We combine high-frequency monetary policy shocks with state-dependent local projections, interpreting traditional inclusion as a proxy for liquidity constraints and digital inclusion as a proxy for search frictions. Regions with stronger liquidity constraints exhibit weaker output and price responses, in line with the predictions of New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents. Lower search frictions instead tend to amplify transmission over medium horizons, though short-run effects are mixed