CFDS Discussion Paper Series

CFDS is publishing the CFDS Discussion Paper Series focused on studies on financial economics, finance, macroeconomics, and international economics to give all researchers related to our center and Henan University, as well as members of our cooperation partners a chance to publish their ideas and reach a broader academic audience. CFDS Dicsussion Papers are indexed on RePEc.

 

 

CFDS is publishing the CFDS Discussion Paper Series focused on studies on financial economics, finance, macroeconomics, and international economics to give all researchers related to our center and Henan University, as well as members of our cooperation partners a chance to publish their ideas and reach a broader academic audience. CFDS Dicsussion Papers are indexed on RePEc.

Papers are accepted and published in English only.

 

How to participate?

  1. Submit your paper

    There is no deadline for submission and we are reviewing papers on an ongoing basis. To submit please:
    1. Send an email to Kerstin El-Shagi (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.); subject line: CFDS Discussion Papers "The title of your paper"
    2. Include your full name; email; mobile number; institutional affiliation
    3. Attach your paper

    Language Editing: If you require to edit your paper before submitting it, we can recommend using American Journal Experts. If you are looking for a cheaper alternative, individuals on fiverr offer English language editing too.

  2. Peer review: Papers are peer-reviewed and chosen on a rolling basis upon submission. You will be asked to respond to the reviewer´s comments.

  3. Publication: Each Discussion Paper is published and disseminated widely through CFDS's website as well as indexed on RePEc. We are aware that the papers represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion with you as author. We publish digitally only.

Makram El-Shagi, Steven Yamarik

CFDS Discussion Paper 2018/6

Abstract

Since the end of the Bretton Woods system, promoting capital account liberalization has been one of the tenants of the IMF. Capital account liberalization was deemed one of the 10 pillars of what was often dubbed the Washington Consensus. Yet things changed drastically with the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. From 2009 to 2012, comments from top IMF officials and staff reports displayed quite clearly that the IMF had revised its position where capital controls could be part of the toolkit. In this paper, we assess the role of the IMF in capital account liberalization from 1995 to 2015. We use a midpoint-inflated ordered probit model to estimate the effects of being under IMF conditionality on capital controls, allowing for different effects for pre- and post-Financial Crisis. We find that the IMF did indeed drive liberalization of capital inflows in the precrisis era, but stopped doing so in the post-crisis period.

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Rongrong Sun

CFDS Discussion Paper 2018/5

Abstract

This paper uses the event study to estimate the impact of various monetary policy announcements on market interest rates in China over the 2002-2017 period. I find that financial markets understand the quantitative signals better: the market response to an announced adjustment of the regulated retail interest rate and the required reserve ratio is positive and significant at all maturities of bond rates, but smaller at the long end of the yield curve. However, the market barely responds to announced changes in the qualitative policy stance index, which contains limited vague information and is easily anticipated. Two newly introduced central bank lending rates do not appear to be sufficient to replace the retail interest rate and the reserve ratio in guiding market rates in the post-deregulation era. My results suggest that the PBC adopts a publicly announced short-term interest-rate operating target regime, similar to the Fed’s federal funds rate target.

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Rongrong Sun

CFDS Discussion Paper 2018/4

Abstract

This paper reviews the retail interest-rate-control deregulation in China over the 1993-2015 period and provides a preliminary assessment of the PBC’s replacement monetary framework. I show that the interest-rate controls triggered the development of deposit substitutes that banks used to circumvent the restrictions, which in turn drove deposits out of commercial banks. Concerned by deterioration of bank profits and build-up of financial frangibility, the PBC has been pushing strongly for interest-rate liberalization. I quantify the distortionary effects of these controls: disintermediation, a rising shadow banking system and financial repression. Despite the official lift-off of the controls, the retail interest rates are still subject to the PBC’s window guidance and other pricing mechanism guidance. The interest-rate corridor does not function well in confining money market rates. This suggests that the PBC adopt a target money market rate system.

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Michael Funke / Rongrong Sun / Linxu Zhu

CFDS Discussion Paper 2018/3

Abstract

Household borrowing in China has increased considerably in recent years, raising concerns about the household sector’s vulnerability and implications for the stability of the financial system. We construct a number of granular debt-burden indicators at the level of individual Chinese households and calculate the share of households that are financially vulnerable using the three available waves (2011, 2013 and 2015) of China’s Household Finance Survey. Overall loan-to-value (LTV) ratios appear safe and sound at first glance, but closer scrutiny reveals that Chinese households in the lowest income quintile face high vulnerability and struggle to meet their debt commitments. Our stress tests suggest that Chinese households in higher quintiles, despite the huge increase in household indebtedness, are not particularly vulnerable to declining incomes or falling house prices.

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Enzo Dia / Lunan Jiang / Lorenzo Menna / Lin Zhang

CFDS Discussion Paper 2018/2

Abstract

We describe the existence of a substantial dispersion of interest margins charged by commercial banks among Chinese provinces and find empirically that the main drivers of interest margins are resource costs. We build a parsimonious dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring both banking and production sectors that we calibrate at both the national and provincial levels. Our model can explain a considerable share of the interest margin charged at the provinicial level, and we find evidence that when Chinese banks adopt a technology imposing the same capital share across provinces, their productivity becomes substantially lower. Since the differences in wages in Chinese provinces are substantial, the adoption of a common technology implies an inefficient industrial structure for the banking industry and a substantial cost for the economy. The adoption of a standardized technology also generates a stronger response of the loan rate to productivity shocks, and thus the capability of banks to smooth regional idiosyncratic productivity shocks hitting firms declines substantially.

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Makram El-Shagi, Steven Yamarik

CFDS Discussion Paper 2018/1

Abstract

This paper presents updated estimates for state-level capital and investment for 1950 to 2015. We improve upon the procedure of Garofalo and Yamarik (2002) and Yamarik (2013) by using quantity measures to apportion the mining capital stock and a geometric pattern of depreciation to derive investment data. In an empirical application we use our data to estimate the production function and a simple growth model. We find coefficient estimates that support constant returns to scale and a 1/3 output elasticity of capital. These results are consistent with past regional and cross-country papers, supporting the plausibility of our data.

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Makram El-Shagi, Lin Zhang

CFDS Discussion Paper 2017/5

Abstract

We assess the role of silver price fluctuations on Chinese trade and GDP during the late Qing dynasty, when China still had a bimetallic monetary system where silver was mostly used for trade. Using a structural VAR with a newly proposed small sample bias correction and blockwise recursive identication, we identify the impact of silver price shocks on the Chinese economy from 1867 to 1910. We find that silver price changes have substantial impact on trade, but barely affect GDP. Our results can partly be applied to the analysis of the role of vehicle currencies in today's emerging economies.

 

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Jan Klingelhöfer, Rongrong Sun

CFDS Discussion Paper 2017/4

Abstract

We study the Chinese experience and provide evidence that central banks can play an active role in safeguarding financial stability. The narrative approach is used to disentangle macropudential policy actions from monetary actions. We show that reserve requirements, window guidance, supervisory pressure and housing-market policies can be used for macroprudential purposes. Our VAR estimates suggest that well-targeted macroprudential policy has immediate and persistent impact on credit, but no statistically significant impact on output. Macroprudential policy can be used to retain financial stability without triggering an economic slowdown, or as a complement to monetary policy to offset the buildup of financial vulnerabilities arising from monetary easing. The multi-instrument framework enables central banks to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability.

 

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Makram El-Shagi, Yizhuang Zheng

CFDS Discussion Paper 2017/3

Abstract

In this paper we reexamine the literature on money demand in China published both in English and Chinese language. Over the past 30 years - starting with the paper by Chow (1987) there has been a regular stream of papers assessing the Chinese money demand function. The literature is mostly focusing on income elasticity, stability, and - which is special for
China - the adequate choice and quality of data. In particular regarding stability of money demand, we find a substantial publication bias towards rejecting stability. When controlling for publication bias, and focusing on longer time periods, our paper strongly suggests stable long run money demand in China.

 

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Makram El-Shagi, Lunan Jiang

CFDS Discussion Paper 2017/2

Abstract

Although China’s monetary and financial system differs drastically from its Western counterpart, empirical studies covering this vast economy (the largest by some accounts) have often been simple reestimations or recalibrations of models that have originally been designed to describe US or European monetary policy. In this paper, we aim to provide an assessment of Chinese monetary policy and in particular monetary policy transmission through the bond market into the real economy, which takes into account the peculiarities of the Chinese market. Namely, our model includes both China’s modern attempts at a market based policy shock as well as the “authority” based monetary policy that is a relic of the original banking system; it considers the special nature of the Chinese treasury bond market which is separated in two independent markets with very limited direct arbitrage opportunities between almost identical assets, and finally it incorporates the role of real estate, which played an essential role in China during the last decade.

 

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Jonathan Benchimol, Makram El-Shagi

CFDS Discussion Paper 2017/1

Abstract

Governments, central banks, and private companies make extensive use of expert and market-based forecasts in their decision-making processes. These forecasts can be affected by terrorism, which should be considered by decision makers. We focus on terrorism, as a mostly endogenously driven form of political uncertainty, and use new econometric tests to assess the forecasting performance of market and professional in‡flation and exchange-rate forecasts in Israel. We show that
expert forecasts are better than market-based forecasts, particularly during periods of terrorism. However, forecasting performance and abilities of both market-based and expert forecasts are signifi…cantly reduced during such periods. Thus, policymakers should be particularly attentive to terrorism when considering in‡flation and exchange-rate forecasts.

 

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Chen, Yinghui / Jiang, Lunan

CFDS Discussion Paper 2019/9

Abstract

This paper investigates the contribution of liquidity risk to Chinese corporate bond spreads. We calculate corporate bond spreads based on the full treasury yield curve and establish a set of liquidity measures of the Chinese corporate bonds. Our empirical study shows that liquidity premium accounts for a relatively smaller portion of corporate bond spread in China, although the market liquidity is low and corporate bond issuers are strictly pre-screened. These findings are interesting, as the developed markets have better liquidity and less pre-issuance restriction, and liquidity premium still explains a relatively larger portion of corporate bond spread. Besides, we also explore the determinants of Chinese corporate bond liquidity and default premiums.

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Jan Klingelhöfer

CFDS Discussion Paper 2019/8

Abstract

I present a model of repeated electoral competition between two parties. Parts of the electorate vote retrospectively and consider the amount of rent-seeking by the incumbent party, while the prospective voters follow probabilistic party preferences when casting their votes. I show that it is possible to distinguish the effects of incumbency advantage and electoral punishment on the minimum level of rent-seeking that is consistent with equilibrium. As long as there is electoral punishment for excessive rent-seeking, a larger incumbency advantage increases accountability by decreasing the minimum amount of rent-seeking consistent with equilibrium. The reason is that the larger the incumbency advantage is, the more important is the result of the next election for all future election outcomes. Consequently, the incumbent party is willing to give up more rent-seeking opportunities to improve its electoral prospects.

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Jonathan Benchimol, Irfan Qureshi

CFDS Discussion Paper 2019/7

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the stimulants and consequences of money demand dynamics. By assuming that household’s money holdings and consumption preferences are not separable, we demonstrate that the interest-elasticity of demand for money is a function of the household’s preference to hold real balances, the extent to which these preferences are not separable in consumption and real balances, and trend infl‡ation. An empirical study of U.S. data revealed that there was a gradual fall in the interest elasticity of money demand of approximately one-third during the 1970s due to high trend in‡flation. A further decline in the interest-elasticity of the demand for money was observed in the 1980s due to the changing household preferences that emerged in response to …financial innovation. These developments led to a reduction in the welfare cost of infl‡ation that subsequently explains the rise in monetary neutrality observed in the data.

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Makram El-Shagi, Jarko Fidrmuc, Steven Yamarik

CFDS Discussion Paper 2019/6

Abstract

We test the Rajan hypothesis using data for 75 highly heterogeneous Russian regions between the Russian crisis and the introduction of international sanctions (2000-2012). Applying static as well as dynamic panel data models, we show that a rise in income inequality measured by regional Gini indices is significantly correlated with the growth of personal loans. Thus, the rising inequality in Russia is likely to have implications on financial staiblity and occurrence of banking crises. Moreover, the correlation of inequality and corporate loans indicates that inequality affects loans growth across more channels than those implied by the Rajan hypothesis.

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Makram El-Shagi, Gregor von Schweinitz

CFDS Discussion Paper 2019/5

Abstract

In this paper, we use local projections to investigate the impact of consolidation shocks on GDP growh, conditional on the fragility of government finances. Based on the database of fiscal plans in OECD countries, we show that spending shocks are less detrimental than tax-based consolidation. In times of fiscal fragility, our results indicate strongly that governments should consolidate through surprise policy changes rather than announcements of consolidation at a later horizon.

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Makram El-Shagi, Lunan Jiang

CFDS Discussion Paper 2019/4

Abstract

The current state-of-the-art estimation of yield curves relies on the dynamic state space version of the Nelson and Siegel (1987) model proposed in the seminal paper by Diebold et al. (2006). However, things become difficult when applying their approach to emerging economies with less frequently bond issuance and more sparse maturity available. Therefore, the traditional state space representation, which requires dense and fixed grids of maturities, may not be possible. One remedy is to use the traditional Nelson and Siegel (1987) OLS estimation instead, though it sacrifices efficiency by ignoring the time dimension. We propose a simple  augmentation of the Diebold et al. (2006) framework, which is more efficient than OLS estimation as it allows exploiting information from all available bonds and the time dependency of yields. We demonstrate the efficiency gains generated by our method in five case studies for major emerging economies including four of the BRICS.

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Makram El-Shagi / W. Charles Sawyer / Kiril Tochkov

CFDS Discussion Paper 2019/3

Abstract

Import demand has been a major research topic in international economics for the past 80 years because of its importance for analyzing trade and evaluating trade policies. The goal of this paper is to survey the literature and conduct a meta-analysis of empirical studies on import demand with the intention of clarifying the effect of economic development on income elasticity. In particular, we test the hypothesis that higher income levels are associated with a more elastic import demand. We apply a combination of parametric and non-parametric methods on estimates from a sample of 152 papers published over the period 1975-2014 and find that this relationship is significant and robust. Specifically, kernel densities of income elasticity estimates for high-income countries in North America and Europe are shown to exceed those for poorer parts of the world. The results from quartile regressions confirm this pattern and establish its robustness when controlling for the effect of model specifications.

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Simone Marsiglio, Nahid Masoudi

CFDS Discussion Paper 2019/1

Abstract

We analyze a transboundary pollution control problem in a heterogeneous two-country differential game in which each country’s regulator cares for the implications of environmental policy on its compet-
itiveness. We characterize and compare the noncooperative and the cooperative solutions, showing that under both scenarios, the heterogeneous countries impose different tax rates despite such competitiveness
concerns. This may suggest that, while implementing some kind of mitigation policy is necessary to combat climate change, a universally homogeneous environmental tax may not be either desirable or optimal.

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