October 28th, 2020

Discussion Paper 2020/6 is now available: Benchimol, J. / El-Shagi, M. / Saadon, Y..: Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?


Each person's characteristics may influence that person's behaviors and their outcomes. We build and use a new database to estimate experts' performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. We classify experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts' inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. An expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation.